Backtest Your Bitcoin DCA Strategy

No — and the data proves it. If you started $100/week DCA in November 2021 at Bitcoin's $69K all-time high, your average cost basis today is around $35-38K (because you bought heavily through the 2022 crash at $15-20K). At current prices near $100K, you're up ~70%. DCA's superpower is that it turns your "worst timing" into a merely "okay timing" by buying the dip automatically. The only way DCA fails is if you stop during the crash.

For weekly DCA, fees matter more than you think. Strike and Swan Bitcoinoffer fee-free or near-free recurring BTC purchases — purpose-built for DCA. Coinbase Advancedcharges 0.6% maker fee (not the 1.5% on regular Coinbase). River Financial charges 0% on recurring buys. Avoid using Coinbase's basic app for DCA — the spread + fee can eat 2-3% per purchase. Over 3 years of weekly DCA, the difference between a 0.1% and 1.5% fee exchange is $220 vs $3,300in total fees on $15,700 invested.

Multiple studies have analyzed Bitcoin prices by day of week. The results are noisy and inconsistent across time periods. Monday and Sunday have shown slightly lower average prices historically (~1-2%), but this edge is so small it's within noise. The day doesn't matter. What matters is that you pick a day and stick to it. Automating your DCA eliminates the temptation to skip a week because "the price seems high." That temptation is exactly what DCA is designed to defeat.

Yes, and the difference is real. $25/week ($1,300/year) gives you 52 buy points per year. $108/month ($1,300/year) gives you only 12. Over 2022's volatile market, weekly DCA achieved a ~4-8% lower average cost basis than monthly because it caught more intra-month dips. On a $15K total investment, that's ~$600-1,200 difference in portfolio value. Not life-changing, but it's free money just for buying more frequently.

This is the question nobody answers because "never sell" is the crypto meme. But here's a framework: DCA out the same way you DCA'd in. If your portfolio reaches a target (say, 5x your total invested), start selling a fixed percentage monthly. This avoids the "sold too early" and "held too long" extremes. Some DCA investors use the Bitcoin halving cycle: accumulate in bear years, sell 10-20% of holdings 12-18 months after each halving (when prices have historically peaked). This isn't financial advice — it's a framework for thinking.

No — results show gross returns before fees. To estimate net returns: multiply your total number of purchases by your fee rate. For example: 3 years of weekly DCA = 156 purchases. At 0.5% fee on $100 each = $78 total fees. At 0.1% fee = $15.60. The difference is marginal for low-fee exchanges but significant on platforms like regular Coinbase (1.5% = $234 in fees). See the exchange comparison above to pick the cheapest option for your DCA.